Fiscal'relaxation'will lean towards the livelihood sector
The Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China Central Committee
Release time：
2024-08-20
Source：
The Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, which has always set the tone for the Central Economic Work Conference, was held on the 9th. The reporter found that at the Central Politburo meeting, it is highly likely that the tone was set for the Central Economic Work Conference: to enhance the pertinence, flexibility, and foresight of regulation, continue to handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, and accelerate the transformation of economic development mode and economic structure adjustment.
In terms of macroeconomics, next year's economic growth may slow down, with a rapid decline in export and investment growth rates. Fiscal policy will play a greater role, monetary policy will be neutral and loose, the reserve requirement ratio is expected to be lowered 4-6 times, interest rates will not be easily lowered, and new credit is expected to reach 8 trillion yuan next year.
The Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, which has always set the tone for the Central Economic Work Conference, was held on the 9th. The reporter found that at the Central Politburo meeting, it is highly likely that the tone was set for the Central Economic Work Conference.
Next year's policy setting: emphasizing timely pre adjustment and fine-tuning
The Politburo meeting decided that China will maintain a prudent monetary policy and an active fiscal policy in 2012. The meeting also proposed to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation with greater foresight, accurately grasp the intensity, pace, and focus of regulation, and make timely adjustments and fine-tuning according to changes in the situation.
UBS China Chief Economist Wang Tao predicts that a more pronounced relaxation of fiscal and credit policies will occur in the first quarter of 2012, as export and construction activities will significantly slow down by then. Relaxation will tend to focus on the "livelihood" areas: affordable housing construction, water conservancy systems and irrigation projects, environmental protection projects, urban infrastructure, circulation system construction, and other service industries. Although the government has repeatedly emphasized the importance of promoting consumption, the space for further tax cuts may be limited. It is expected that the government will increase pensions and minimum living allowances, while also increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises.
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